The big news in the political world this morning is the indictment of Paul Manafort, President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman, which flows from special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. Along for the ride is another Trump campaign official, Rick Gates, who is also facing 12 federal criminal counts thanks to the work of a federal grand jury. As is my tendency, I will be content to respond to this news with a few sentencing-related observations while leaving it to others to engage in political spin and other forms of legal speculation.
The full 31-page indictment of Manafort and Gates is available via this link, and the 12 federal criminal counts facing them are conspiracy against the United States (count 1), conspiracy to launder money (count 2), failure to file required reports (counts 3 to 9), being an unregistered agent of a foreign principal (count 10), false/misleading FARA statements (count 11) and false statements (count 12). Though a number of these counts, coupled with the narrative of the defendants' actions in the indictment, can sound quite ominous, it is ultimately the money laundering count that should send a Halloween chill down the spine of Manafort and Gates (and, presumably, their defense lawyers).
The money laundering count appears to carry the highest statutory sentencing range (20 years) of all the charges. In addition, because of the large amounts of money involved in these offenses — the indictment alleges Manafort laundered $18 million — the calculated guideline range for this offense is least a decade (and likely more). In other words, if Manafort were convicted of just the money laundering allegations against him, the "the starting point and the initial benchmark" for his sentencing is 10+ years in federal prison. (It is not clear from a quick review of the indictment whether the amounts involved for Gates would drive his guideline range up quite so high.)
Manafort, who is 68 years old, surely would like to avoid any prison time and he certainly does not want to risk spending the rest of his life in the federal pen. He can, of course, choose to fight all the charges at trial, but I suspect Mueller and his team only moved forward with these indictments allegations after being confident they could prove them all beyond a reasonable doubt. Moreover, thanks to the reality that federal judges can and often do consider "acquitted conduct" at sentencing, even an acquittal on most but not all of the counts may not significantly change these ugly sentencing realities for Manafort and Gates.
Of course, what can change these sentencing dynamics is a plea deal that locks in some favorable sentencing terms and/or a decision by the defendants to, in the language of 5K1.1 of the federal sentencing guidelines, "provide substantial assistance in the investigation or prosecution of another person who has committed an offense." Those hoping that these indictments turn up the heat on current members of Team Trump can and should relish the reality that Manafort and Gates now have strong sentencing reasons to consider providing substantial assistance in the investigation of others. What others they might have information about, and what others Mueller and his team are seeking information on, will sure keep folks inside the Beltway chattering in the coming weeks and months.
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