Back in March of this year, as reported in this post, US Sentencing Commission posted on its website this letter from the USSC's Director of its Office of Research and Data to an analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. This document included a detailed "Sentence and Prison Impact Estimate Summary" of the impact of S.1917, the Sentencing Reform and Corrections Act of 2017. That analysis not only detailed the expected impact of an array of provisions in the SRCA, but also confirmed my sense that the prison-reform provisions of that bill could be in many ways more important and impactful than many of its sentencing-reform provisions.
The FIRST STEP Act, notably, has preserved and even expanded upon some of the prison-reform provisions that were in the SRCA, but it only now has a few of its sentencing-reform provisions. Still, its impact is likely to be considerable (with just how considerable depending upon its implementation). And, helpfully, the US Sentencing Commission has now produced this new, updated document titled "Sentence and Prison Impact Estimate Summary, S. 756, The First Step Act of 2018 (as passed by the Senate on December 18, 2018)." Here is that document's basic accounting of the three biggest impact items of the bill:
Section 101: Risk and Needs Assessment System
Retroactive Impact: 106,114 eligible offenders were in BOP custody as of May 26, 2018.
Section 402: Broadening of Existing Safety Valve (to offenders with up to 4 criminal history points)
Prospective Impact: 2,045 Offenders Annually; -21.8% Sentence Reduction; Decrease of 1,072 beds in BOP 5 years after effective date.
Retroactive Impact: Not authorized in bill.
Section 404: Retroactive Application of Fair Sentencing Act (to defendants previously sentenced)
Impact: 2,660 eligible offenders were in BOP custody as of May 26, 2018.
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