The title of this post is the title of this interesting new short report produced by New Yorkers United for Justice (NYUJ), a coalition of criminal justice organizations. Here are parts of the introduction and conclusion:
A rise in certain categories of violent crime, most notably gun-related homicides and shootings, in New York State has created public concern and widespread speculation about its causes. This publication examines possible causes for this uptick and debunks the assertions that New York’s criminal legal reforms — including the bail reform of 2018 — caused increases in these categories of crimes in our state.
The exceptional increase in homicides coupled with the decreases in other crime categories suggests that novel factors, rather than well-studied criminal justice reforms, are at work. A careful look at the data, set in the context of national and world events, reveals that a complex blend of factors is likely at play — including the pandemic and its significant economic impacts, a drastic increase in gun sales, and the racial reckoning and discourse on policing that have contributed to a deterioration of police and community relations.
Furthermore, the increases in certain categories of crime in 2020 actually came on the heels of decades of steady downward trends in crime, both in New York and across the nation. And the recent increases in homicides bring New York nowhere near the levels of homicides experienced in the early 1990s, when numbers peaked. In fact, New York City’s 2020 homicide rates are lower than those of Houston, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles.
Some local opponents of criminal justice reform are pouncing on the increase in some crimes to stoke fear, slow progress, and double down on failed, outmoded policies. And yet the increase in homicides — particularly those using guns — is national in scope, affecting communities big and small, and those that have instituted criminal justice reforms as well as those that have not.....
NYUJ’s review of the available crime data for New York State reveals the wholesale lack of a connection between recent upticks in certain categories of crime and recently adopted criminal legal reforms, such as pretrial reform. Rather, similar upticks have been experienced across communities with varied criminal justice strategies, not just ones that have adopted reforms.
As discussed above, the most likely explanation for the crime data fluctuations is not a single explanation at all, but a confluence of conditions — from a once-in-a-century global pandemic and its attendant economic disruptions to a profusion of guns entering communities already on edge to strained relations between communities and law enforcement. This toxic stew of factors has produced an environment of fear and mistrust.
Unfortunately, the complexity of this data is not readily apparent in many media reports. As a result, there is a danger that policy decisions will be made based on unsupportable conclusions that defy consistent, longstanding evidence about what works to reduce crime and recidivism. In presenting this information, NYUJ hopes to engage in a productive dialogue about what is driving the concerning crime numbers, what the existing data show, and the most effective policies indicated by the evidence.
A few of many prior recent related posts:
- CCJ releases June 2021 update on "Pandemic, Social Unrest, and Crime in U.S. Cities."
- AG Garland announces new(?) federal effort to reduce violent crime
- Amidst more guns and many more gun crimes (especially murders), can sentencing reforms move forward as media predicts "bloody summer"?
- Perhaps more guns explains why we have more gun homicides and more gun crimes
- As we puzzle through gun violence spike, is it too soon to hope a decline is already starting?
- "Is New York’s Wave of Gun Violence Receding? Experts See Reason for Hope"
- "Crime trends and violence worse in California’s Republican-voting counties than Democratic-voting counties"
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